False cause
From Summa Bergania
Also known as, post hoc, ergo propter hoc.
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Definition
- When A occurs, B occurs.
- Therefore, A causes B.
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Examples
- When Roger Babson, whose prediction of the great stock market crash brought him renown, became ill with tuberculosis, he returned to his home in Massachusetts rather than follow his doctor's advice to remain in the West. During the freezing winter he left the windows open, wore a coat with a heating pad in the back, and had his secretary wear mittens and hit the typewriter keys with rubber hammers. Babson got well and attributed his cure to fresh air. Air from pine woods, according to Babson, has chemical or electrical qualities (or both) of great medicinal value. (Source: Martin Gardner, Fads and Fallacies in the Name of Science 1952, p.97)
Tightening up the reasoning gives us
- When I returned to the freezing winter of Massachusetts (A), I was cured of tuberculosis.
- Therefore the properties of a freezing winter in Massachusetts (A) caused the tuberculosis cure (B).
- Dr. Melvin Page wrote a book called Degeneration—Regeneration where he claimed that drinking milk is good for babies, but bad for adults. He stated that taken by adults, milk is the frequent cause of colds, sinus troubles, colitis, and most important, cancer. One reason he gives for his view is that in Wisconsin more people die of cancer per capita than in any other state, and more milk is drunk in Wisconsin than in any other state. (Source: James D. Carney/Richard K. Scheer, Fundamentals of Logic, Second Edition)
Tightening...
- More milk is drunk and more people die of cancer in Wisconsin than in any other state.
- Therefore milk drinking is a cause of cancer.
- "I can't help but think that you are the cause of this problem; we never had any problem with the furnace until you moved into the apartment." The manager of the apartment house, on no stated grounds other than the temporal priority of the new tenant's occupancy, has assumed that the tenant's presence has some causal relationship to the furnace's becoming faulty. (Source: T. Edward Damer, Attacking Faulty Reasoning, Third Edition p. 131)
- "Ever since we quit going to church, business has been getting worse. If we want to keep from going completely bankrupt, we'd better start back to church." Again, the claim is that one event was brought about by another event simply because of the temporal relationship. (Source: T. Edward Damer, Attacking Faulty Reasoning, Third Edition p. 131)
- "From the time of the Supreme Court decisions granting the accused more rights, the crime rate has steadily increased. It is the Supreme Court that brought about our increasing crime problems." It is conceivable that there is some causal relationship between the judicial situation created by the Supreme Court decisions and the increased crime rate, but it would have to be established by more evidence than that of the temporal priority of the Court decisions. (Source: T. Edward Damer, Attacking Faulty Reasoning, Third Edition p. 131)
- More and more young people are attending high schools and colleges today than ever before. Yet there is more juvenile delinquency and more alienation among the young. This makes it clear that these young people are being corrupted by their education. (Source: S. Morris Engel, With Good Reason, Fifth Edition p. 165)
- Twenty-five years after graduation, alumni of Harvard have an average income five times that of people the same age who have no college education. If a person wants to be wealthy, he or she should enroll at Harvard. (Source: S. Morris Engel, With Good Reason, Fifth Edition p. 165)
- Egyptians worshiped the ibis because each year, shortly after flocks of ibis had migrated to the banks of the Nile river, the river overflowed its banks and irrigated the land. The birds were credited with causing the precious flood waters when in fact both their migration and the river's overflow were effects of a common cause, the change of season. (Source: S. Morris Engel, With Good Reason, Fifth Edition p. 166)
- Your auto accident doesn't surprise me. Just yesterday a black cat crossed your path.
- Your boss has a bigger vocabulary than you. That's one reason he's your boss.
